Monday, December 07, 2009
by Domenic & Jody Manchisi
The rebound that occurred in Greater Toronto’s residential housing market in 2009 was nothing short of incredible. Having started the year a dismal 47 per cent off 2008 levels, sales steadily clawed back, with Toronto poised to record its second best year on record. Purchasers who held off in the final quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 quickly acclimatized to new market realities and moved to take advantage of favourable lending rates. Yet, inventory levels proved a signifi cant impediment, as supply struggled to meet demand—down considerably for much of the year. Buyers refused to be daunted, despite the re-emergence of the multiple-offer scenario. Activity continued to ramp up, with sales reaching 10,955 units in June—the second best month on record. The city finally eclipsed year-to-date 2008 sales in August. The unprecedented momentum shocked economists and industry experts alike. In fact, housing remained a steadfast bright spot in a province that experienced among the worst of the economic turmoil.
The strength of housing clearly defied the weakened fiscal foundation throughout the year. Pent-up demand was the main driver of activity in 2009, given the thousands of purchasers who waited it out on the sidelines in 2008. Interest rates have been another principle factor, providing impetus at all price points. Consumer confidence buoyed sales as positive economic indicators—however sporadic—made their way into the headlines. Rising prices have also served as a catalyst, as it became evident that there were no deals to be had, despite the current economic uncertainty.
Although the global recession had little lasting impact on Greater Toronto’s housing market in 2009, the economic recovery is expected to bolster resale housing going forward. Overall, the GTA is expected to see housing sales reach 85,000 units, an increase of 14 per cent over 2008. Average price may break the $400,000 mark by year end or hover slightly below that significant milestone.
Given that the GTA boasts 40 per cent of the nation’s business headquarters, almost one-fifth of the country’s gross domestic product, nearly half of Ontario’s GDP, and 40 per cent of all immigrants, any improvement from an economic standpoint is bound to be felt at the consumer level. Supporting growth in 2010 will be a strengthened automotive sector, improved exports and commodity prices, greater retail and consumer spending, and a significant investment in capital projects. The implementation of the Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) in Ontario is expected to cause a run up in housing activity during the spring market, as purchasers move to avoid additional expenses. In the longer-term, new construction is expected to be impacted much more extensively, shifting some buyer demand to the resale sector—at least until buyers adjust to the new normal.
Inventory levels in Greater Toronto are expected to remain quite low, although some improvement will occur in the first half of 2010. Multiple offers will remain a factor, most evident on well-priced, well-located product, listed from $300,000 to $700,000. Hot pockets will continue to elicit bidding wars next year. The phenomenon will not be limited to single-family homes, as desirable starter condominium units in prime locations will also experience competition in 2010. Of all types of product, the upper-end—priced over $1 million—is expected to record yet another year of strong activity. Given the momentum that currently exists and the fact that all segments are now working in tandem, further increases in sales and average prices are forecast for 2010. Seller’s market conditions will continue to prevail, with condominiums and single-family homes predicted to experience a four per cent rise in prices in 2010, bringing average price to $415,000, while unit sales continue to edge higher, amid more favourable economic conditions, reaching 86,000 units.